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Traditionally, refining economics and profitability have been based on the straight-line relationship between the difference in the prime and secondary markets3, wherein the profitability of a refinery is determined by the difference in the crack spread between crude oils in that refinery compared with the typical crack spread for that crude oil in the global market. However, this generally reflects today’s volatile peaking crude oil price rather than the mean crude oil price, which is falling, and crack spreads have come to depend on the marginal price of crude oil, which tends to be less volatile.

The mean price-based crack spread concept is to arrive at the crack spread by taking the weighted average of the crack spreads for each crude oil in a group. The weights are determined by the quantities of crude oil traded each month; for example, in June, when crude oil is traded, the weights are set to one and the average crack spread for each month is calculated as if the underlying movement in the price of the crude oil were the average price. You can read more about this concept in my March 2010 column titled Crack spread based on mean price.



Variations in the theoretical crack spread caused by the shifting means of the crack spreads for individual months are typically quite small compared with the spreads over short periods of time. Today, many traders view the mean-based method as simple, transparent, and accurate, and a number of financial institutions and private traders use it to produce daily and weekly estimates of the current relative value of crude oil and other refined products.

Several industries use the same mean-based method to derive crack spread values from continuous data feeds, including electricity generators that need to know their relative profitability on various natural gas, coal, or oil sources over a number of years; refiners that need to know their relative profitability when choosing one crude oil to blend for a particular end product, or the relative profitability of a particular crude oil derived from various sources.

These new concepts, methods, and techniques provide us with an entirely new view of the refining industry, and yield new and previously unattainable insights.




MultiTerm can be used for load post-processing, as part of the stress safety analysis of structures. We develop the load post-processing environment for Orthoglass in the form of the operating panel so that the basic information necessary for the calculation of stress and deformation fields at load points under both static and dynamic loads can be easily accessed. For the same purpose, it is also possible to create new load points and to create any number of 3D models. In this research the OPG-project has been simulated by the newly developed MultiTerm environment. The load points were created using the MultiTerm environment and a new method for calculation of stress and deformation fields at load points has been proposed. The method uses the previously calculated deformation fields under static load conditions. The method is based on the new cubic multiplier (Green and Noll method). This multiplier works by generating complex numbers. The method was verified by comparing the proposed solutions with Green-Noll standards as well as the finite elements method. The paper discusses an approach to load point post-processing in fracture mechanics via 3D models with a focus on dynamic load simulations. With the aid of the developed environment, it is possible to create new load points as well as to calculate the new deformation fields at load points for both static and dynamic loads, taking into account the dislocation density gradient. The proposed environment tool is a development of the MultiTerm software. For the same purpose, it is also possible to create new load points and to create any number of 3D models. ۵ec8ef588b


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